SOS Bushmen

BOTSWANA Changing of the guard With little fanfare, Botswana's President Festus Mogae last week handed over the reins of government to his vice-president, Seretse Ian Khama, almost a year and a half before the next elections.

Despite claims by some opponents that the change of leadership is constitutionally illegal a view dismissed by analysts and some calls for direct presidential elections, there seems no reason Khama will not govern as intended. Botswana has a history of smooth leadership succession since the country's first president, Sir Seretse Khama, who ruled the country from independence in 1966 until 1980, groomed his successor, Quett Ketumile Masire.

Under Masire and Mogae, Botswana has grown from one of the poorest African countries to one of its wealthiest.

The new president is the son of the founding president and a former lieutenant-general in the army, which has raised concerns about a dynastic style of succession that has often bedevilled African and Asian nations.

Khama is also paramount chief of Botswana's biggest tribe, the Bangwato, which will help ensure the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) another victory in next year's polls. It has won every election since independence from Britain 42 years ago.

By taking over as president so long before the next election, Khama is making sure he will be well established in power and in the minds of Botswana's people by the time they vote.

However, Chris Maroleng, of the Institute for Security Studies in SA, says smooth succession and tribal associations are not the only reasons for the BDP's continued success. It also owes much to the fact the opposition is divided and disorganised.

He concedes Botswana falls short of some Western notions of democracy but, when compared with the rest of the continent, it rates among the best, with regular elections, a functioning parliament and an independent judiciary.

There are also fears that Khama's military background may lead to a more authoritarian style of government.

Perhaps this may be an opportunity for the Batswana people to introduce more checks and balances, if they expect a more authoritarian rule, says Maroleng.

Parliamentary oversight needs to be strengthened and the process can do with more transparency. Botswana is also about to introduce a new intelligence dispensation, which some critics say will allow the security establishment a more dominant role under Khama.

Maroleng says military training does not always instil a negative skills set and Khama comes to the job with a strong sense of the need for political stability and discipline.

According to the World Bank, Khama inherits a country that has had one of the fastest-growing economies over the past decade, leaving behind even some Southeast-Asian tiger economies, with its average annual growth rate of about 9%.

Diamonds are the country's best friend and as the world's largest producer, it has taken Botswana's per capita income to US$5900 four times the regional average.

Almost all the country's stones are produced by the Debswana Diamond Co, owned by De Beers and the Botswana government.

The diamond industry accounts for 38% of gross domestic product (GDP) and generates more than 70% of foreign earnings and about half of government revenues.

Other GDP contributors include the services industry (44%), construction (7%), manufacturing (4%) and agriculture (2%).

Botswana's international standing is helped by holding Transparency International's lowest corruption rating in Africa. It also boasts a Moody's country credit equal to Japan's, no exchange controls, competitive personal and corporate taxation rates and moderate inflation.

But the spurt of economic growth since independence has been in gradual decline. Over the past six years, GDP growth has averaged about 5%. The World Bank expects this trend to continue in the medium term.

Botswana's main challenge over the next decade is to diversify its economy and look for other engines of growth as the diamond-led bonanza tapers off.

The country faces a number of development challenges: a high inequality ratio; unemployment between 18% and 20% and growing, particularly among youth; and the world's second-worst HIV/Aids rate, at 24% of the population. According to the World Bank, in 2006 Botswana ranked 131 out of 177 countries on the human development index, mainly as a result of the impact of HIV/Aids.

It is estimated that there are already 120000 Aids orphans in Botswana. But under a programme driven largely by Mogae over the past decade, at least 85% of the country's infected patients now get antiretroviral treatment.

Despite its economic successes, the government has faced international criticism, generally over its commitment to democracy, but more specifically for its human rights record.

Over the past three years the government has been dogged by controversy over the removal of indigenous San communities from the Central Kalahari Game Reserve.

The situation was inflamed when Mogae ordered the deportation of Australian academic Kenneth Good, who lived in the country for more than 15 years. Good, who was often critical of Mogae's and Khama's style of governance, had also become a vocal international supporter of San rights.

Though the Botswana high court upheld the deportation order against Good, it ruled in the San's favour, saying the Bushmen had been illegally forced off their ancestral lands.

Since then at least 17 people, mostly journalists and human rights activists, have been barred from entering Botswana. The US described the Kenneth Good case as a restriction on academic freedom.

This week the Media Institute of Southern Africa (Misa) expressed concern about Khama's comments about the media during his inaugural speech.

Misa says Khama's references to the media and discipline suggest he views the media as a social ill that needs his special attention. It adds that he routinely accuses the media of wrongdoing without substantiation or justification.

However, the Botswana human rights organisation Ditshwanelo says there are moves in the right direction. We are slowly planting the seeds which we hope will see a change of attitudes and perception on human rights, says spokesman Peter Tshukudu.

He says Ditshwanelo is encouraged by the fact that Khama outlined the principles of democracy, dignity and discipline in his inaugural speech, which were in accordance with the human rights-based approach to development.